Pakistan's clear message to the West

[Mustafa Qadri]

Pakistan's clear message to the West

It's not all fanaticism and violence. A grass-roots democratic movement is making strides.

By Mustafa Qadri

March 21, 2009

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-qadri21-2009mar21,0,1408574.story

Writing From Islamabad, Pakistan -- Politics is never dull in Pakistan. This week, it was inspirational too.


On Monday, I watched people flock to the home of Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. A tense standoff between the government and a coalition of opposition groups over Chaudhry's reinstatement as chief justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court had finally been resolved. After two years of government-enforced "retirement," Chaudhry would return to the bench.

A cross- section of Pakistan's diverse society gathered by the thousands on the lush, manicured lawn of the chief justice's official residence to celebrate -- young and old, men and women, religious and secular, rich and poor. Lawyers in their black suits, the signature uniform of Pakistan's democratic revolutionaries, danced the bhangra as drums sounded and chants about freedom and justice filled the air.


It was a noisy victory party for democracy and the rule of law, and it contained a positive message about Pakistan for the world.


Since 9/11, the very name of Pakistan has been synonymous with the West's deepest, darkest fears: a nuclear-armed state with a predominantly Muslim society struggling to control an insurgency inspired by the most oppressive and puritanical of religious impulses. That has generally been the explanation for the billions of dollars in military aid the United States has given to Pakistan's army. (The New America Foundation estimates that in 2006 and 2007 alone, the U.S. gave $3.5 billion in military aid to the Pakistani army, the most powerful institution in an institutionally weak state.)


The dark view has only been underlined by the violence that has engulfed Pakistan -- the murder of its most celebrated politician, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, in a suicide attack at the end of 2007; the Marriott Hotel bombing in Islamabad; Pakistan's alleged role in the attacks in Mumbai, India, in November; and the attack on Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore this month.


But Chaudhry's reinstatement represents the final act of a popular revolt that should be as meaningful to the West as the violence and fanatical Islam. He was not the first judge to be fired by an autocrat in Pakistan, but his removal by the former president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, was met with unprecedented public protests. Ultimately, the protesters won and Musharraf was forced to step down.


President Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widower, emerged as the head of the Pakistan People's Party and Musharraf's unlikely replacement. He soon reminded people of Musharraf by banning pro-Chaudhry protests, arresting opposition leaders, trying to shut down private news channels and refusing to reinstate the chief justice. On Monday, fearing a fate similar to Musharraf's, Zardari finally caved.


The U.S. role in all of this was glaring by its absence. It has preferred to invest heavily in the Pakistani army for more than three decades. According to noted military analyst Ayesha Siddiqua, the long experience of military rule combined with the domination of civilian politics by a small group of elites have stunted the institutional development of a democratic culture in Pakistan.


Not surprisingly, when lawyers and ordinary citizens took to the streets in 2007, there was mostly collective silence from Pakistan's key Western allies. Former President George W. Bush went so far as to describe Musharraf as "a solid friend" who deserved the United States' continued support. Although the U.S. spoke of spreading democracy to the Muslim world, it did nothing publicly to help this most democratic of peoples' movements.


Recently, positive signals have begun to emanate from Washington. Sen. John Kerry, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has called for a tripling of U.S. nonmilitary aid to Pakistan -- about $7.5 billion over the next five years. More than the money, however, the U.S. government has to start listening to the people of Pakistan.


Despite millions of dollars spent by the State Department on opinion polls in Pakistan, there has been a catastrophic failure to understand the local mind-set. As recently as Monday, that failure was in evidence when President Obama's envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard C. Holbrooke, praised Zardari, of all people, for his "statesmanlike" decision to reinstate the chief justice.


Where was the praise for the chief justice who had braved two authoritarian presidents, or for the hundreds of thousands of ordinary Pakistanis who risked assault and arrest to support him? To ordinary Pakistanis, it sent the familiar signal that the United States supports the autocrats over the people.


The Chaudhry victory will not solve Pakistan's problems. But by demonstrating the importance of functioning and accountable institutions, the country's lawyers may well have found an opening for the long road out of the country's present hell.


Is the West watching?


Mustafa Qadri is Pakistan correspondent for the Diplomat magazine and newmatilda.com. His website is mustafaqadri.net.


* MARCH 21, 2009


Army Chiefs' Bond Bolsters U.S. Hopes in Pakistan


By YOCHI J. DREAZEN in Washington and MATTHEW ROSENBERG in Islamabad

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759845485301419.html


The Obama administration's hopes of stabilizing Pakistan increasingly rest on the strong bond between military chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen and Gen. Ashfaq Kayani.


The two men spoke daily during the recent political crisis, in which growing opposition protests threatened to undermine the government until Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari -- also under pressure from Gen. Kayani and senior U.S. officials -- made significant concessions.


During the crisis. Gen. Kayani assured Adm. Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, that he wasn't contemplating a military coup, according to U.S. officials. These officials said Adm. Mullen trusted the assurances -- but they acknowledged that some senior U.S. military officials harbor doubts about Gen. Kayani's capabilities and intentions.


Pakistani army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, right, greets a troop. He and Adm. Mike Mullen have developed a bond that U.S. officials say aids efforts to ensure Pakistan's stability and its support in fighting militants along the border with Afghanistan.

Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani


Gen. Kayani ultimately helped resolve the crisis by mediating between Mr. Zardari and his chief rival, Nawaz Sharif, U.S. and Pakistani officials said.


The relationship offers potential dividends for both countries. American officials want Islamabad to take stronger steps against the militants working to destabilize Pakistan and Afghanistan, and need Gen. Kayani's help as an ally in the fight, which they say he supports. Pakistan wants to continue receiving American financial aid and military assistance, which requires maintaining close ties with Adm. Mullen's Pentagon.


It is a relationship born of necessity. Mr. Zardari is also seen as committed to battling militants, but his government is fragile. Many Pentagon officials believe the government will fall within the next few months, although civilian U.S. officials say the president could hold on.


As an ally, Gen. Kayani is "seen as the safer bet, because he'll probably be the last one standing," a senior U.S. military official said.


But the U.S. reliance on Gen. Kayani carries risks. During the Bush years, U.S. officials had a similarly warm relationship with Gen. Kayani's predecessor as army chief, Pervez Musharraf, and sent him more than $10 billion in American aid. In the end, Mr. Musharraf, who was also president, disappointed the U.S. by failing to order a broad crackdown on the Islamic extremists in his country.


"It's a complete replay of what took place with Musharraf," said C. Christine Fair, a senior political scientist with Rand Corp. and former United Nations political officer in Kabul. "We have a love affair with whichever chief of army staff is in office at any one time until they thoroughly disappoint."


In their public and private comments, U.S. and Pakistani officials say such concerns are unfounded.


"Gen. Kayani wants the system to work," Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said in an interview, adding that the officer's outlook was "pro-democracy."


U.S. military and civilian policy makers say Gen. Kayani shares their belief that Islamic extremism poses a threat to Pakistan's survival and has taken steps that show he is serious about tackling the problem. In September, he replaced the head of Pakistan's intelligence service, which reports to him, and which U.S. officials say has long maintained ties to the Taliban. Pakistani officials say they only maintain contacts with some elements of the Taliban and no longer directly support the militants.


"He has done what he said he was going to do," Adm. Mullen told reporters earlier this year. "Gen. Kayani has not misled me at all."


In an interview, a senior Pentagon official praised Gen. Kayani for keeping tens of thousands of Pakistani troops deployed against Islamic militants in restive Bajaur province, instead of shifting them to the country's tense border with India.


Gen. Kayani is a chain smoker, while Adm. Mullen wakes up before 5 a.m. each day to work out before he arrives at the Pentagon. They also have professional differences: Gen. Kayani once ran Pakistan's main spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, while Adm. Mullen has spent his entire career in the regular military.


But they have forged strong ties since becoming their nations' top uniformed military officers in 2007.


"There's increasing confidence," said Talaat Masood, a Pakistani military analyst and retired general. "They trust each other in a way, even if they know are certain things that the Pakistan army will not do," he said -- specifically that Pakistan won't drastically reduce its troop strength along the border with India.


Since taking office, Gen. Kayani has cheered U.S. officials by putting experienced, nonideological officers in charge of two of Pakistan's most important security arms: the Inter-Services Intelligence and the 60,000-strong Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force that is taking the lead in battling the Taliban and al Qaeda in Pakistan's tribal areas.


More recently, Gen. Kayani played a crucial role in defusing last week's political crisis, which centered on Mr. Zardari's refusal to reinstate the former chief justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court.


Pakistani officials said that Gen. Kayani repeatedly met with Mr. Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani.


"Initially, he confined himself to polite advice, but his tenor became firmer at the end," a Pakistani official said.


"It was the Kayani model -- invisible, but around," said Jhangir Karamat, a retired chief of army staff.

—Zahid Hussain in Islamabad contributed to this article.


Write to Yochi J. Dreazen at yochi.dreazen@wsj.com and Matthew Rosenberg at matthew.rosenberg@wsj.com